ELECTRICAL ENERGY FORECASTING - A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

Abstract

Energy demand forecasting is essentially required for the optimal use of energy resources of a country. This paper presents a methodology to forecast the electrical energy demand of a power system. The methodology is based on the forecasting of hourly demand. A relationship is developed among the forecasted annual/seasonal average hourly load and the probabilistic laws of load ratios to forecast the hourly load. The proposed methodology is validated by applying it to a power system. The methodology is useful for long term hourly load forecasting and also for the forecast of electric energy requirement of a country.